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| The Second Great Depression | 
 enlarge | Author: Warren Brussee
Publisher: Booklocker.com, Inc.
Category: Book
List Price: $19.95
Buy New: $17.95
You Save: $2.00 (10%)
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Avg. Customer Rating:  (24 reviews)
Sales Rank: 82224
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 300
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.1
Dimensions (in): 9.8 x 6.9 x 0.9
ISBN: 1591136881
Dewey Decimal Number: 332
EAN: 9781591136880
ASIN: 1591136881
Publication Date: March 18, 2005
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| Customer Reviews:
 Great Subject, Mediocre Book February 18, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Despite the three star rating, I enjoyed reading this book. If one keeps an open mind, there is much to agree with. The conclusions, by and large, follow logically from the facts marshalled in support of them.
To the extent I disagreed or saw weakness with the arguments, here's what I found:
1. As other readers have noted, the predilection of the author to attempt to name years when certain events occur (namely, the depression) greatly undermine the merit of the arguments put forth, and have the tendency of casting the author as a crackpot. I don't think that's the case, but it's timing a depression is a foolish endeavor.
2. The recommendation to purchase TIPS seems particularly asinine, given that hyperinflation would likely obviate any gains.
3. Amid all the talk about a depression, I found it amazingly that there was virtually no mention of gold, especially given gold's history as an inflation hedge.
4. Similarly, I found it odd that the tables which attempted to estimate how much one would need to retire at a certain age, etc. relied upon the patently fallacious contemporary CPI numbers (on the order of 3%), which exclude energy and food. In fact, this assumption would be almost certainly incorrect even if the CPI did include food and energy, since even CPI is expected to rise significantly in the near to medium term.
Despite these critiques, I think the basic premise of this book - that we're headed for an extended period of economic hardship - is right on.
Useful, but overconfident February 6, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I found the book useful in its predictions, scary at times, and it seems to mirror the thinking of other books on the subject in many ways. However, the way the author confidently states "this will happen" or "that will happen by xxxx" makes me question this very smart man's judgement at times. Certainly he should know that economies are so complex, especially with politics involved, that one cannot say definitively what will happen when.
I found his prognostication on other non-economic things, such as saying China will invade Taiwan (not might, will) in a certain year as giving those who call this a kooky book some fuel to use against it.
I have little doubt that much of what he forecasts HAS to happen eventually, but as for when, I'm always wary of those who try to call these things too specifically.
I also found the massive charts in the back on what to save and how much one would need a little strange. The assumptions he uses cannot not be definitively determined. Interest rates, returns, etc can vary massively over the years. It would have been better to just give the formulas and let the reader do his numbers.
Also, I found it odd that in such a pessimistic book, he seems to assume a "$20,000/year" social security benefit for retirees even way into the future. I am 44 and have little confidence I'll see anything near that amount by the time I qualify.
Also, his stating flatly that a depression would last exactly 13 years on the cover is again not going to make it easy to recommend this book w/o sounding like a nut.
Individually it's hard to argue with many of his points. I'm not so sure about the conclusions, though.
One thing he is strangely off on is his confidence in buying TIPS as a way to handle inflation and save. The CPI numbers used now to set the TIP rates are woefully understated, so you are losing real buying power if you buy TIPS. It may or may not end up being the best solution possible, but with Gold many investors have already made enough above inflation to beat TIPS even if they got out now and went to money markets and such. If one had invested in TIPS in 2003 when the book came out, they'd be massively behind a gold investor by now even if the CPI numbers weren't fake, which they are.
I'm also not sure he pointed out that social security payments will also be set by the same fake CPI numbers, and so relying on it at all will be a mistake. His charts need to reflect that.
Overall, interesting, but depressing, his solutions are not offering much hope, and I note he fails to see the silver lining in some situations, and realize how well economies seek equilibrium. Things will need to reset, but then they may well improve (for example, foreign imports getting too costly can lead to better jobs for many here as we have to make our own stuff)
Worth reading January 16, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
I prefer to read investment books written by non-financial professionals because I believe that they are less biased (if any). The benefit I received by reading this book is for me to think about again the usefulness of the Tips, which have never been part of my portofolio. The 1st part of book for a case of overvalued US stock market is less interesting because I already read the book written by D. Arnold years ago, so I am already familiar with the arguments by using demographic data to correlate the stock market performance in the US. Still this theory when added with the theory of supply-demand for a case of why the US stock market could have peaked up in ~2000 is still the strongest one I ever know, but it is just not anything fresh for me. As to use the dividend yield number to make a case that US stocks are overpriced, I feel it is not so strong because the dividend payment was complicated by many non-financial influences in the past 100 years, for example changes in the way of tax treatment to the dividend payment had an huge impact to how the dividend to be paid. In other words, I am not so sure that US stocks are overpriced as today even though I do agree that the demand to US stocks by US investors will decline in the future mainly due to the demographic reason. However, can the US stocks be more demanded by foreign investors in the future? propably yes. The author didn't discuss about this possibility. As to the preparations for the "possible" depression I do think that Tips is an good alternative although it is not the only one, for sure.
 Succinct, but lacking in recourse January 13, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
The author does an excellent job of describing the coming depression. He includes how and when it will arrive as well as some of the major indicators that can be used to validate his theorem. One thing I expected from the book is absent, however. Just like every other negative forecast book I've found the author fails to give even one piece of financial advice. This glaring omission gives me considerably less confidence in the sincerity of the author.
 Everyone should read. Solid argument in simple terms. Thank you, Sir. January 3, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Mr.Brussee,
Thank you for writing this book. Encourage everyone to read. If you and Dave Ramsey were taugh in high school, consumer debt would be nill (and unemployment would likely rise because folks would stop buying things they want vs need =)
Enjoy the Social Security money that Gen X's like myself pay but will not see =)
Debt free and living on 12.435% of take-home pay,
Shawn Eldridge
Business Intelligence Consultant
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