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| The Second Great Depression | 
 enlarge | Author: Warren Brussee
Publisher: Booklocker.com, Inc.
Category: Book
List Price: $19.95
Buy New: $15.16
You Save: $4.79 (24%)
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Avg. Customer Rating:  (23 reviews)
Sales Rank: 9355
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 300
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.1
Dimensions (in): 9.8 x 6.9 x 0.9
ISBN: 1591136881
Dewey Decimal Number: 332
EAN: 9781591136880
ASIN: 1591136881
Publication Date: March 18, 2005
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
This frightening book shows how massive consumer debt will trigger the next depression, starting in 2007. With interest rates increasing, savings rates near zero and debt at its maximum, people will be pushed over their debt limit, causing the depression.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 18 more reviews...
 astoundingly accurate predictions July 3, 2008
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
I wonder whether some of the people who wrote reviews of this book in 2006 would have been more generous with their praise if they were writing their reviews today.
I was just reading through his chapter 4 on what the depression will look like and the predictions he made for the present time frame are a virtual carbon copy of the actual headlines in the financial news of this year.
Some criticized his great specificity of predictions. That is indeed a very risky thing to do. I would be satisfied with a book that made predictions of a much more general nature if I found that it had done a decent job of anticipating the general trends in the economy.
But Mr. Brussee insisted on making a whole slew of very specific predictions. And guess what, the vast majority of what he predicted for the present time frame has come to pass!
Brussee appears to me to be one of a number of people who have independently come to similar conclusions about where the economy is headed. Although there is a great deal of commonality in the beliefs of these people (e.g., the central role that an ever-expanding spiral of debt has in creating the economic woes we now face), I find it interesting that this what now probably should be referred to as a "contemporary school of economic thought", did not arise from a bunch of inbred cronies in some ideologically-permeated academic institutions, but instead has emerged from a bunch of disparate individuals within our society who share one common characteristic- an unwillingness to accept the spoon-fed economic notions of the "don't worry be happy" (DWBH) school of economics that dominates the financial media, an establishment epitomized by the likes of Larry "King Dollar" Kudlow.
I am very pleased that the renegades have a wonderful media outlet for their particular perspective, namely Jim Puplava and John Loeffler's financialsense.com. (and, financialsense also provides an outlet for a considerable diversity of views, although you won't see many articles posted there by adherents to the DWBH school of economics, but no need for that since they have the entire rest of the financial media to get their point of view out.
There is a lot of financial commentary today by the "renegades" (perhaps the best term for them is the "sound money" advocates, alhthough that is only one attribute of this economic philosophy, it seems to be the one most consistently a part of those in this (loosely-defined) group.)
However, one thing to keep in mind with Mr. Brussee's writing:
HE WROTE THIS BACK IN 2004, FOR GOD'S SAKE!
I was not following the financial writings back then that I am today, but I am confident that there was very little being written at that time with the clarity, detail, and foresight, of this book.
When I think about: "What have I learned from this book that is new?"
The concept that Brussee espouses that is most new to me is the contention that the credit crisis has been building for the past couple of decades and that the US would have been in a depression in the 1990's if it had not been for the artificial stimulus of consumer debt expansion.
I always thought our current economic crisis began with the tech bubble.
But I find Brussee's hypothesis on the matter to be persuasive.
Now there have been reviews complaining about the latter part of the book and all the graphs and stuff. Thank you for those reviews. I think I will probably not bother to read the rest of the book.
So how can I give it 5 stars? Because part I of the book, if it were a standalone book, would be worthy of 5 stars. If you feel you must judge the entire book, I encourage you to tear out pages 85 and beyond first and then judge the full book.
The one other substantive matter I wanted to bring up is that some reviews commented on the lack of investment advice in how to deal with the depression, and also the author's affinity for treasury protected securities.
I don't feel there is any obligation for such a book to include investment advice. The opposite extreme I guess would be the book "Profit from the Peak" about peak oil, which is really a tutorial about peak oil much more so than a guide to investing in a peak oil world.
(by the way, the author's foresight was evident also in the chapter "What Else May Trigger the Depression" which included a very prescient discussion of the risk of high energy prices.)
Where was I? Oh yes, treasury protected securities. Unless the author discusses it in part II, one thing he does not assert in the book is the belief held by most SM advocates that the government's formulas for inflation tend to understate what would be calculated under a more meaningful and relevant definition of inflation. Hence, treasury protected securities are probably nearly as worthless garbage as regular treasury bonds.
So, there are my two criticisms of the book:
1). Part II looks so dry, and I have been forewarned about it, that I am not even going to read it.
2). Author does not express contempt for the government's inflation numbers.
Other than that, this was in my view one OUTSTANDING book.
One other thought about the question of investment advice: If the author indeed has done a good job of predicting the economic trends going into 2020, then it should be possible for one to translate that into specific investment decisions without explicit advice on what to invest in.
In fact, specific investment advice may be risky. In the book "Profit from the Peak" the authors for example recommend US oil refiners who can handle heavy sour crude. However, oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia whose new production will increasingly be of the lower grade "heavy sour" variety are interested in building refineries themselves so that they can generate more of the revenue from their oil and provide more domestic jobs.
But, I do have one piece of investment advice which is forget about Treasury Protected Securities as any sort of safe haven in an inflationary depression.
 Government Paper June 20, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I like this book but for me half of the book was useless statistics and charts and tables. I am more interested in ideas. Mr. Brussee is a very smart man and I agree with him and I went though this well researched book and took my trusty high-light marker and marked some important statements and ideas. However, I just don't see who in their right mind would buy Government Paper. TIPS and Federal Bonds and Treasury Bonds are the problem. A government bond is a paper that's backed up by a promise which is backed up by nothing stronger than a toot in the wind several years down the road. There is so much of this stuff floating around the world that it's not even paper any more! It's electronic. It's a book keeping entry. I buy my children physical silver coins. Lots of them. My concern is that when all of your paper promises and electronic accounting vanish, angry mobs and the Federal Government will come looking for my coins. I agree with Mr. Brussee. The Next Great Depression is coming, however, it's not the Second. He forgets the American Depression of 1845-1850, and he also forgets 1873. I hope we can make it until 2010-2012 before the wheels start coming off the little red wagon. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.
 Decent Presentation For Those Unaware Of the Coming Crisis in The Financial Markets June 12, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I first came across this author when he was featured on the Financial Sense program. This author does do a decent job of presenting the potential blood bath that could occur because of the unregulated credit default swaps.
 Too many Charts April 30, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
It was ok. Too many charts. The first part of the book was great, then it was all charts on what kind of return you can get on investments.
Great Subject, Mediocre Book February 18, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Despite the three star rating, I enjoyed reading this book. If one keeps an open mind, there is much to agree with. The conclusions, by and large, follow logically from the facts marshalled in support of them.
To the extent I disagreed or saw weakness with the arguments, here's what I found:
1. As other readers have noted, the predilection of the author to attempt to name years when certain events occur (namely, the depression) greatly undermine the merit of the arguments put forth, and have the tendency of casting the author as a crackpot. I don't think that's the case, but it's timing a depression is a foolish endeavor.
2. The recommendation to purchase TIPS seems particularly asinine, given that hyperinflation would likely obviate any gains.
3. Amid all the talk about a depression, I found it amazingly that there was virtually no mention of gold, especially given gold's history as an inflation hedge.
4. Similarly, I found it odd that the tables which attempted to estimate how much one would need to retire at a certain age, etc. relied upon the patently fallacious contemporary CPI numbers (on the order of 3%), which exclude energy and food. In fact, this assumption would be almost certainly incorrect even if the CPI did include food and energy, since even CPI is expected to rise significantly in the near to medium term.
Despite these critiques, I think the basic premise of this book - that we're headed for an extended period of economic hardship - is right on.
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